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Prediction Of Climate Variability
Developments In The Prediction Of Climate Variability And Implications For Insurance
by Neville Nicholls Financial Risk Management for Natural Catastrophes. 1997. Edited by Neil R. Britton and John Oliver. Proceedings of a Conference sponsored by Aon Group Australia Limited
Australian rainfall is highly variable, relative to other countries. This variability arises largely because of the influence of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation. The El Nino - Southern Oscillation also affects the timing and duration of droughts, as well as influencing tropical cyclone activity, intense rainfall activity, and temperature. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is predictable, to a certain extent. This predictability means that, to a degree, some Australian climate fluctuations (droughts, tropical cyclone activity) are also predictable. The historical development of our knowledge of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation and its use in climate prediction will be outlined. Current methods for predicting the El Nino - Southern Oscillation and its effects on Australian climate will be described, along with research aimed at providing improved forecasts. Problems and possibilities for using such forecasts, and implications for the insurance industry, will be considered.
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